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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute approach regarding Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "severe ramifications" in August in case Russia's president carried on blocking ceasefire talks, he finally introduced major sanctions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly impacted Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, which was created by both nations' representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's initiative would effectively benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal in reality weaken that same independence. This constitutes a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, Trump persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, implying ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's war is not only about dominating a destroyed region of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an attractive example for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While freezing in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the proposal would force Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that constitute a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv should he eventually opt to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would make future conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the initiative imposes no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's efforts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, the plan states: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal places no requirement that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan makes Russia commit not to "attack other states" and to "establish in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has broken comparable accords in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a restoration of seized land in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we trust this commitment now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the initiative warns of a "decisive unified military response" in case Russia restart its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the details include unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only block the nation alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning forces on the nation's land, effectively precluding the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. But in contrast to a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not