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Only two days prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.